This image shows the warmest month average temperature (degrees Celsius) for Earth and the projected supercontinent (Pangea Ultima) in 250 million years, when it would be difficult for almost any mammals to survive. Credit: University of Bristol
A study predicts that the formation of a supercontinent, Pangea Ultima, 250 million years in the future could lead to extreme temperatures, threatening mammalian survival due to increased volcanism and a hotter Sun.
A recent study published in Nature Geoscience uses supercomputer climate models to examine how a supercontinent, dubbed Pangea Ultima (also called Pangea Proxima), that will form 250 million years from now will result in extreme temperatures, making this new supercontinent uninhabitable for life, specifically mammals. This study was conducted by an international team of researchers led by the University of Bristol and holds the potential to help scientists better understand how Earth’s climate could change in the distant future from natural processes, as opposed to climate change.
The Earth’s temperatures are estimated to rise drastically 250 million years from now due to two reasons: increased volcanism from the tectonic activity merging all the continents together, and our Sun giving off more energy and heat as it ages. While volcanoes act as temperature moderators by releasing carbon dioxide and naturally warming the planet, too much volcanism results in too much carbon dioxide, which results in drastic temperature increases. Additionally, like mammals, our Sun also grows with age, and as it grows it gives off more heat and energy.
“The newly emerged supercontinent would effectively create a triple whammy, comprising the continentality effect, hotter sun and more CO2in the atmosphere, of increasing heat for much of the planet,” said Dr. Alexander Farnsworth, who is a Senior Research Associate at the University of Bristol and lead author of the study. “The result is a mostly hostile environment devoid of food and water sources for mammals. Widespread temperatures of between 40 to 50 degrees Celsius, and even greater daily extremes, compounded by high levels of humidity would ultimately seal our fate. Humans – along with many other species – would expire due to their inability to shed this heat through sweat, cooling their bodies.”
The reason mammals, including humans, have survived for so long on the Earth is due to their uncanny ability to adapt to extreme weather conditions. However, while evolution has resulted in mammals being able to lower their survivable limit in cold temperatures, they aren’t able to increase their survivable limit in hot temperatures. This means that as the Earth’s temperatures continue to rise, it will make the likelihood of mammals surviving in these new conditions unlikely.
“The outlook in the distant future appears very bleak,” said Dr. Farnsworth. “Carbon dioxide levels could be double current levels. With the Sun also anticipated to emit about 2.5% more radiation and the supercontinent being located primarily in the hot, humid tropics, much of the planet could be facing temperatures of between 40 to 70 °C. This work also highlights that a world within the so-called ‘habitable zone’ of a solar system may not be the most hospitable for humans depending on whether the continents are dispersed, as we have today, or in one large supercontinent.”
While Pangea Ultima might be dominating the Earth 250 million years from now, it won’t be the first supercontinent to grace the Earth’s surface in the planet’s history. Scientists hypothesize there have been 10 supercontinents that have existed throughout Earth’s history, with the most well-known being Pangea, the most recent supercontinent to exist. The reason all these supercontinents have existed throughout the Earth’s approximately 4.5 billion-year history is due to plate tectonics since the Earth’s surface is divided into 7 major and 8 minor plates that collide and subduct beneath each other over vast geologic periods of time.
How will Pangea Ultima change the habitability of the Earth and what new discoveries about supercontinents will scientists make in the coming years and decades? Only time will tell, and this is why we science!
As always, keep doing science & keep looking up!
Adapted from an article originally published on Universe Today.
Reference: “Climate extremes likely to drive land mammal extinction during next supercontinent assembly” by Alexander Farnsworth, Y. T. Eunice Lo, Paul J. Valdes, Jonathan R. Buzan, Benjamin J. W. Mills, Andrew S. Merdith, Christopher R. Scotese and Hannah R. Wakeford, 25 September 2023, Nature Geoscience.
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01259-3
FAQs
Pangea Ultima: The Supercontinent That Could Wipe Out Nearly All Mammals. A study predicts that the formation of a supercontinent, Pangea Ultima, 250 million years in the future could lead to extreme temperatures, threatening mammalian survival due to increased volcanism and a hotter Sun.
Will humans survive Pangea Ultima? ›
Their estimates show that the formation of the supercontinent, Pangea Ultima, will render life on Earth inhospitable to mammals simply due to its size.
What is the Pangea Ultima theory? ›
Pangaea Ultima, the Next Supercontinent, May Doom Mammals to Far-Future Extinction. Pangaea Ultima is expected to form in about 250 million years, when a land mass comprising Europe, Asia and Africa merges with the Americas. Up to 92% of Earth could be uninhabitable to mammals in 250 million years, researchers predict.
Why will Pangea Ultima be so hot? ›
A new study published in Nature Geoscience projects that as this new supercontinent forms in around 250 million years, a hotter Sun, an absence of ocean coastline, and increased volcanic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions mean that temperatures, particularly in landlocked areas, will skyrocket.
What effect did Pangea have on animals? ›
As Pangea formed, the extent of shallow water habitats declined, and land barriers inhibited cold polar waters from circulating into the tropics. This is thought to have reduced dissolved oxygen levels in the warm water habitats that remained and contributed to the 95 percent reduction of diversity in marine species.
Will mammals go extinct? ›
A new model suggests that in 250 million years, all land will collide into a supercontinent that boosts warming and pushes mammals to extinction. It's been about 250 million years since reptile-like animals evolved into mammals.
Will Earth become Pangea again? ›
Pangaea Proxima (also called Pangaea Ultima, Neopangaea, and Pangaea II) is a possible future supercontinent configuration. Consistent with the supercontinent cycle, Pangaea Proxima could form within the next 250 million years.
Is Pangea theory debunked? ›
Modern geology has shown that Pangea did actually exist. In contrast to Wegener's thinking, however, geologists note that other Pangea-like supercontinents likely preceded Pangea, including Rodinia (circa 1 billion years ago) and Pannotia (circa 600 million years ago).
Is Pangea Ultima Habitable? ›
In 250 million years, for the first time since Pangea cracked apart, the continents of Earth will crash together into a new supercontinent dubbed Pangea Ultima. And humans will probably have very little chance of survival because life on the new supercontinent will be fatally hot.
Could humans live on Pangea? ›
The study warned that widespread temperatures of 40 to 50 degrees Celsius, coupled with high humidity, would be fatal for many species, including humans. The study estimated that only around 8% to 16% of land on the supercontinent would be habitable for mammals.
Evidence of existence
The geography of the continents bordering the Atlantic Ocean was the first evidence suggesting the existence of Pangaea. The seemingly close fit of the coastlines of North and South America with Europe and Africa was remarked on almost as soon as these coasts were charted.
What will Earth look like 250 million years from now? ›
According to his team's calculations, 250 million years from now, the continents will reunite and Earth will become unbearably hot, rendering much of the land uninhabitable and leading to mass land-mammal extinction. If the team is right, everything would be, as Farnsworth put it, “very bleak.”
Did Pangea exist during Ice Age? ›
During the ice age that occurred in the Pennsylvanian and Permian (roughly 300 million years ago), the southern portion of the supercontinent Pangea was at the south pole. The result was extensive glaciation of what is now Africa, South America, India, Antarctica, Australia, and the Arabian peninsula.
Were mammals alive during Pangea? ›
So life, which started out in warm shallow waters, spread to every sort of habitat on Pangaea. It continued to flourish in the ocean, but also in lakes, ponds, rivers, caves, etc. Life on dry land included bacteria, fungi, plants, insects, amphibians, reptiles, saurians, the early mammals, and the first birds.
How will Pangea Ultima affect life on Earth? ›
But by the time Pangea Ultima forms, CO2 levels could double naturally to as high as 1,120 parts per million (today, CO2 levels are around 418 parts per million). Under that worst-case scenario, just 8 percent of Earth's surface would be hospitable to mammals, mostly the polar and coastal regions.
Did dinosaurs live on Pangea? ›
Dinosaurs lived on all of the continents. At the beginning of the age of dinosaurs (during the Triassic Period, about 230 million years ago), the continents were arranged together as a single supercontinent called Pangea. During the 165 million years of dinosaur existence this supercontinent slowly broke apart.
Would humans be able to live on Pangea? ›
They found it would be extremely hot, dry and virtually uninhabitable for humans and mammals, who are not evolved to cope with prolonged exposure to excessive heat.
Were humans alive when Pangea split? ›
Humans did not exist during the time of the super-continent of Pangea. Pangea formed between 300 million and 335 million years ago and began to break apart about 200 million years ago. So, Pangea broke up about 194 million years before the first ancestors of humans were on Earth.
What will happen if Pangea still existed? ›
Answer and Explanation: If Pangea still existed, the weather of most of the Earth would be radically different. More of the Earth would be a desert because the large land mass would not allow for rain water from the ocean to penetrate the interior, leading to a large desert.
